The five main builders of LNG carriers are at full capacity and unlikely to take further orders until 2014, resulting in a supply/demand imbalance that could create a bottleneck in the LNG supply chain over the next three or four years.
In its assessment of the market, Awilco LNG stated in its 120-page Oslo Stock Exchange listing prospectus that capacity at the five yards – Samsung, Daewoo, Hudong-Zhongua, Hyundai Heavy Industries and STX – is for all practical purposes filled up [sic] for 2013.
The Norwegian LNG ship operator furthers that the flow of LNGCs from other yards will also be limited since the requisite liabilities will be too large to bear for yard with little or no LNGC building experience.
“There are currently about 39 LNG carriers on order, but with fleet utilisation already at 100% and an orderbook of only 11% of the global fleet, correcting the shortfall in tonnage before 2014-2015 seems difficult“, Alwilco said.
Based on current projections, Alwico expects demand to outpace supply with a supply deficit from 2013 and onwards.
Source: imarest, September 9, 2011;