Planned capacity reductions in 2018 are not in line with the seasonality of the previous years, SeaIntel Maritime Analysis informed following an analysis of blank sailings for Chinese New Year (CNY) for 2015-2018.
The Asia to North America West Coast trade lane is currently slated to see just 6.2% of the total three-week CNY capacity blanked, whereas it was 14.7%, 15.3% and 35.3% in 2017, 2016 and 2015, respectively.
If the 2017 level of CNY blank sailings are to be reached, an additional 77,500 TEU or 10 average-sized sailings would need to be blanked in the coming weeks, according to SeaIntel. Relative to the 2015-2017 average, an additional 141,500 TEU or 18 average-sized sailings need to blanked.
Planned capacity reductions in 2018 on the Asia to North America East Coast trade lane are currently 5.4%, compared to 10.4% in 2017, and 13.6% and 13.3% in 2016 and 2015, respectively.
This means that to achieve the 2017 level of blanking, an additional 21,500 TEU or 3 average-sized sailings need to be blanked. Relative to the 2015-2017 average, an additional 30,500 TEU or 4 average-sized sailings needs to be blanked.
On the Asia to Europe trade, 6.1% of the deployed capacity is currently slated to be blanked, compared to 18.4%, 29.0%, and 23.9% in the previous years, respectively.
To achieve the 2017 level of blank sailings, an additional 99,500 TEU or 7 average-sized sailings need to be blanked. To achieve the 2015-2017 average blanking, an additional 142,000 TEU or 10 average-sized sailings need to be blanked.
The Asia to Mediterranean currently expects a 11.3% capacity reduction in 2018, while the number was 12.9%, 23.1%, and 30.6% in the previous years, respectively. This means that to achieve the 2017 level off blank sailings, an additional 7,000 TEU needs to be blanked. To achieve the 2015-2017 average blanking, an additional 47,500 TEU or around 4 average-sized sailings need to be blanked.
“If we see the same impact on CNY demand as in the previous years – and there is no reason to suggest that we would not – currently planned capacity reductions in 2018 fall well short of the numbers seen in the past years,” Alan Murphy, SeaIntel CEO, said.
SeaIntel’s period of analysis covers a three-week period including Chinese New Year and the two weeks following it.