Clarksons: Global Seaborne Trade to Grow by Up to 4 Pct in 2017

Illustration; Image Courtesy: Teekay

Following a weaker performance in 2015, global seaborne trade growth illustrated its ability to bounce back strongly, and is now expected to reach close to 4% in full year 2017.

According to Clarksons Research, aggregate world seaborne trade is projected to grow by 3.9% in full year 2017, on the back of a 2.8% growth seen last year, which itself was a major bounce back from the sluggish growth of 2.1% registered in 2015.

“If this year does achieve the 3.9% mark, it would constitute the fastest year of seaborne trade growth for 5 years, since the 4.3% growth in 2012, a real bounce back to form,” Clarksons said.

Image Courtesy: Clarksons Research

As well as representing a healthy bounce back, the rate of expansion this year holds up well in historical terms. The average since the downturn in 2009, when seaborne trade shrank by 4%, has been 4.2%. Excluding the year of 2010, which was a huge bounce back of 9.3% in its own right, the figure would be a more modest 3.4%. The average in the 2002-08 boom was not too much higher at 4.5%.

This year so far, the average year-on-year growth stood at 5% in Jan-Apr, whilst in May-Aug the rate averaged a slower 3%. However, both compare favourably to full year 2016; in reality the more recent months saw greater volumes in 2016 than the early months of the year, easing the year-on-year growth rate down.

“There have been lots of supportive trends this year: resilient dry bulk imports to China, a return to coal trade growth, robust intra-Asian box volumes, rapid transpacific container trade growth and burgeoning gas volumes. Of course, downward pressures exists too and the future is not without risk,” Clarksons informed.

However, with seaborne trade projected to expand at a multiple of 1.1 times global GDP growth this year, “there’s now a clear signal that some of the distress arising from much slower trade growth as recently as 2015 was actually more likely the passing of the low point in a cycle.”

Share this article

Follow World Maritime News

In Depth>


<< Mar 2018 >>
26 27 28 1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12 13 14 15 16 17 18
19 20 21 22 23 24 25
26 27 28 29 30 31 1

Singapore Maritime Technology Conference and Exhibition (SMTC) 2018

The 3rd Singapore Maritime Technology Conference and Exhibition (SMTC) 2018 is organized by the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore…

read more >

Shippax Ferry Conference 2018

The two-day onboard ferry conference was first organized in 2003 and grows ever more popular with some 400 delegates from over 40 ferry…

read more >

8th Dredging & Land Reclamation World Summit 2018

The 8th Dredging and Land Reclamation Summit 2018 will gather the decision makers from Authorities and Operators responsible for ports…

read more >

Shipping 360

This course is ideal for those who have recently joined the maritime sector and those who need to have a better understanding…

read more >