Imports at US major retail container ports are expected to rise by 4.6 percent during the first half of 2017 over the same period last year, shows the new monthly Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
The increase is ascribed to the improvement of the nation’s economy and further growth of retail sales.
“This is very much in line with what we are forecasting for retail sales and consumer spending this year,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said.
“Retailers try to balance inventories very carefully with demand. So, when retailers import more merchandise, that’s a pretty good indicator of what they are expecting to happen with sales.”
Ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.58 million TEUs in December, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was down 3.8 percent from November as the holiday season came to an end but up 10.2 percent from December 2015. That brought 2016 cargo volume to a total of 18.8 million TEU, up 3.2 percent from 2015, which had grown 5.4 percent from 2014, the report said.
Furthermore, January was estimated at 1.59 million TEU, up 6.6 percent from January 2016. February is forecast at 1.53 million TEU, down 0.6 percent from last year; March at 1.43 million TEU, up 7.8 percent from last year; April at 1.56 million TEU, up 8.2 percent; May at 1.66 million TEU, up 2.3 percent, and June at 1.65 million TEU, up 4.3 percent.
Those numbers would bring the first half of 2017 to 9.4 million TEU, up 4.6 percent from the first half of 2016. That would be almost three times the 1.6 percent growth seen in the first half of 2016 over the same period in 2015.
“The United States is well placed in 2017 and is likely to outperform most of the rest of the developed economies,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said.
“If the infrastructure investments promised by the new administration come about, we can expect stronger growth than in 2016, but that assumes good relationships with U.S. trading partners and no recourse to trade barriers that would result in a tit-for-tat response.”