MSI: Major Gains in Crude Tanker Market to Be Limited

Image Courtesy: Teekay

The crude tanker market is forecast to experience a limited winter upturn, as only the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) sector showed any sizable movement in October, with spot earnings on TD3 increasing sharply to around USD 40,000/day, according to Maritime Strategies International (MSI).

Spot activity in other segments mostly moved sideways, although one year T/C estimates have seen some improvement in the sector, suggesting an improvement in sentiment. As a result, expectations of a relatively muted winter upturn remain intact but policy decisions are looming large.

“Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections isn’t likely to have a huge effect on the market in the near-term unless it destabilises the US economy,” Tim Smith, MSI Senior Analyst, said.

He added that in the longer-term there is “clear risk to shipping should protectionist policies be imposed, whilst domestic energy production in the US could be further encouraged as red tape is removed.”

For the fourth quarter VLCC upswing to be maintained, the market will need to see substantial draw from Asian demand. A renewed surge in Chinese buying implies further constructive conditions, but having attained levels close to its expected forecasts and given pressure from fleet growth, any major gains “are likely to be limited and brief.”

An improvement in the VLCC market should also be viewed as a positive lead indicator for Suezmax spot earnings if it can be sustained. Suezmax and Aframax freight markets have lagged VLCCs in winter upturns in recent years, but encouragingly Aframax spot markets have seen some sharp upward movements in the first half of November, MSI said.

The MSI Suezmax spot rate forecast sees modest improvement across the three-month horizon, predicated on seasonal demand and through the remainder of 2016 is likely to see substantial upside, which should also pull up T/C rates. By March though spot market earnings are expected to have returned below USD 20,000/day.

Share this article

Follow World Maritime News

In Depth>

Events>

<< May 2017 >>
MTWTFSS
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 9 10 11 12 13 14
15 16 17 18 19 20 21
22 23 24 25 26 27 28
29 30 31 1 2 3 4

3RD ANNUAL WRECK REMOVAL CONTRACTS AND OPERATIONS SEMINAR

A comprehensive guide to legal and operational aspects of wreck removal incidents…

read more >

BARI-SHIP2017

At Bari-Ship you will meet not only the owners and leaders of these companies, but also the entire spectrum of managerial, operational and production staff…

read more >

Nor-Shipping 2017

Nor-Shipping is the leading maritime event week. Their top-quality exhibition, high-level conferences and prime networking opportunities…

read more >

2ND ANNUAL PORTS AND TERMINALS INSURANCE SEMINAR

DETAILED GUIDANCE ON HOW THE INSURANCE MARKET IS CHANGING, HOW RISKS ARE ASSESSED AND WHAT…

read more >