Tanker Market Players Hoping for Higher Freight Rates

Tanker market players have not lost their hope for an increase in tanker rates, however little movement is expected in the product tanker sector.

According to the latest survey figures by Moore Stephens,  there was a fall in the number of respondents anticipating higher rates in the dry bulk and container ship trades, while expectations in the tanker sector remained unchanged from last time.

The number of respondents overall expecting higher rates in the tanker sector over the next twelve months was unchanged at 41 percent, the second-highest figure since May 2011. Managers (down 3 percentage points to 43 percent) were the only category of respondent to record a fall in numbers anticipating higher rates.


respondents expecting higher rates in the tanker sector over the next twelve months

Charterers recorded a 17 percent increase, to 38 percent, in levels of expectation of improved tanker rates, while the numbers were also up for owners (from 37 percent to 41 percent) and for brokers (by 10 percentage points to 58 percent).

Geographically, the prospects for increased tanker rates were deemed significantly lower this time in North America (down by 21 percentage points to 29 percent), one percentage point higher in Europe at 42 percent, and unchanged in Asia at 40 percent.

In the dry bulk sector, meanwhile, there was a 6 percentage-point fall, to 47 percent, in the overall numbers of those anticipating rate increases.

Expectations of higher dry bulk rates over the next twelve months were up in Asia from 49 percent to 55 percent, but down in Europe from 55 percent to 47 percent, and in North America, by 50 percent to 14 percent.

Moore Stephens quoted one respondent as saying: “The dry bulk market is characterised by weakening growth in demand and continued excessive fleet growth.” 

In the container ship market, meanwhile, the number of respondents expecting rates to increase over the coming twelve months was down by 3 percentage points to 31 percent.

All main categories of respondent, with the exception of owners, were less confident of rate increases this time than they were three months ago.

Expectations on the part of owners were up by 6 percentage points to 42 percent, but charterers (down 6 percentage points to 40 percent), managers (down from 35 percent to 18 percent), and brokers (16 percentage points lower at 25 percent) were of a different mind.

Geographically, expectations of improved container ship rates were down in Asia, from 38 percent to 32 percent, but up by 2 percentage points in Europe to 34 percent.

Source: Moore Stephens, September 24, 2014


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