MSI: Tanker Market Entering Calmer Waters

Illustration; Image Courtesy: NAT

After a year of tumultuous political and policy upheaval, both oil and tanker markets are undergoing a process of rebalancing, according to Maritime Strategies International (MSI).

The fourth quarter of 2016 is capping what has been a mixed 12 months for the tanker markets, while the agreement by OPEC members and non-members alike to cut production in an attempt to reduce oversupply will be a core determinant of conditions in 2017.

Despite some seasonal upside in the final period of the year, 2016 has overall been a year of negative dynamics across the tanker industry both in terms of the annual change in freight rates and asset prices.

“Oversupply of productive capacity in the oil market has been mirrored by excess tonnage capacity in the tanker market. Both are now rebalancing and although fleet growth is expected to remain high in 2017, low earnings and the ratification of ballast water treatment regulations support MSI’s expectations that tanker scrapping will move sharply higher in 2017,” Tim Smith, MSI Senior Analyst, said.

He added that this will boost “a market recovery in 2018 and beyond, built on much lower fleet growth rates than being seen currently, both in the large crude and product tanker sectors.”

OPEC’s decision to cut output remains “fraught with uncertainty” on how the group will manage to maintain discipline and encourage non-OPEC participants to join in.

Despite the negative ramifications of such action, MSI cautions on becoming too bearish, given the relatively light cut by OPEC, prospects for crude coming out of the US and potential improvement in the refining sector, should the oil glut be alleviated.

“The tanker market, like the oil market, is in a clearing phase, removing over-supply and rebalancing. That process could take another year or so before returning to a position where sustained gains can be made, but we remain positive on the long-term outlook,” MSI said.

Share this article

Follow World Maritime News

In Depth>

Events>

<< Feb 2017 >>
MTWTFSS
30 31 1 2 3 4 5
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16 17 18 19
20 21 22 23 24 25 26
27 28 1 2 3 4 5

9th Annual Coasts and Marine Structures 2017 Conference

Discover Best Practise Strategies for Design, Planning, Construction and Asset Management

To remain competitive, Australian port operators must plan, design, manage and maintain their assets more creatively and proactively to meet future demands and drive profitability.

With this in mind, the Coast and Marine Structures Summit 2017 will focus on key considerations relevant to ensuring your existing assets are maximised and prepared to accommodate bigger vessels.

Hear from 20+ global experts including Maritime/Coastal Engineers, Contractors, Port Authorities and more, including GHD (USA), Indonesian Port Corporation (Asia), G-Group Consulting (New Zealand), Ausenco (Australia), Port Authority NSW (Australia), to name a few.

By attending this 2-day conference, you’ll learn about:

– Innovative planning and design of ports to create efficiencies that drive profit
– Best practice asset management strategies and new PIANC design principles for bulk terminals
– Proactive asset management and maintenance to improve durability and maximise and extend asset lifecycles
– Alternative material and protection techniques trialled and tested in the US and Europe
– Strategies to shift organisational culture and mindset from asset management to asset maintenance
– How you can leverage technology to increase the efficiency of your marine structures
– Case studies on retrofitting, expanding and upgrading your ports in cost-effective ways

More info

read more >

European Shipping Week 2017

European Shipping Week is intended to be a platform where policy-makers from the main EU institutions will meet and engage with European…

read more >

SNS2017 – The Southern North Sea Conference & Exhibition

EEEGR’s flagship Southern North Sea conference is the most important event for the energy sector in the East of England…

read more >

Seatrade Cruise Global

For more than 30 years, Seatrade Cruise Global has been the leading international exhibition and conference serving the cruise industry…

read more >